iPhone 4 = Welcome back to '07?

[AmpedNow]

As one of the worst-kept secrets since early April, iPhone 4 is finally here, beginning June 24. Preorders began yesterday.

Also, as predicted, it is leaps and bounds beyond its 3GS predecessor--and virtually everything else. Once again, it appears that Apple has effectively hit the reset button on the smartphone industry for the rest of the year.

No surprise that this is going to be a big seller. But not even ATT thought it was going to be this big...

Here's an excerpt from ATT's Facebook page:

Yesterday's iPhone 4 pre-order numbers are in, and they are 10 times higher than the first day of pre-ordering the iPhone 3G S last year!! Yesterday also set a new record for the number of customers visiting att.com to check eligibility (over 13 million!) Given the unprecedented demand for iPhone 4, as of today we are suspending pre-ordering to fulfill the orders that we've already received. We will keep you all posted on when pre-orders will resume. Keep in mind, as long as you received a confirmation number at the end of your order, you're all set.

I say welcome back to 2007 because it wasn't long after the first-gen iPhone was released that ATT's network began showing signs of overload, esp in high-density urban areas. They have invested billions in 3G and backhaul capacity since then to accommodate all of those bandwidth-sucking iPhones. They just recently began to get a loose grip on providing decent service overall, and now, this...

13+ million new activations over the next few months is astronomical. Even if 50% of those are existing customers upgrading and replacing older phones, that's still millions of new phones swamping the network in a short amount of time.

So basically, despite all of the network improvements, ATT will be back to square one. The network will be clogged up once again.

The iPhone has become too successful for network exclusivity. It is in Apple's interest, and ATT's, ironically, to release it to other cellular providers, asap, imho. It's not in ATT's interest to burden all of their customers with a crawling data network. Nor is it in Apple's interest to have their iPhone brand tarnished by being tied to a slow network.

I'd like to see several million of them slam Verizon all at once... The Droid users will not be happy.



Anyhow... Is anyone getting it?

[Tom Taggart]

All of these gadgets will eventually be self-limiting. There never will be enough bandwidth for everyone to have--and use, these toys. Even if Genachoski succeeds in eliminating over-the-air TV & peddling the bandwidth to AT&T.

[Lester]

That said, AT&T has been pushing out free Wi-Fi (to iPhone) access points in larger urban areas to eliminate 3G congestion.

[CoolBreeze]

A friend of mine in Estonia works for Nokia, and sent me this:

June 17, 2010 -- On June Elisa Eesti gave a demonstration of superfast 4G Internet in the centre of Tallinn. The data communication speed achieved was almost 100 Mbit/s – the first time such a high speed had been achieved in mobile Internet in Estonia

Elisa Eesti has carried out successful tests of the 4G network in cooperation with its supplier Nokia Siemens Networks (NSN). Its 4G coverage is now available in most areas in central Tallinn.

Network Manager of Mobile and Fixed Networks at Elisa Eesti Andrus Kaarelson says that Elisa is testing the 4G network to prepare for the introduction of new technologies and services the moment they can be offered to clients as commercial services.

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2010/06/prweb4141514.htm

[genlock]

Tallinn is somewhere beyond Boomer.

[AmpedNow]

All of these gadgets will eventually be self-limiting. There never will be enough bandwidth for everyone to have--and use, these toys. Even if Genachoski succeeds in eliminating over-the-air TV & peddling the bandwidth to AT&T.

4G has more capacity, and speed. It will help relieve data congestion, although national deployment is still 1-4 years away, depending on where you are. Increased business and community wi-fi will help, too.

Even though smart phone/device data usage is exploding, it will eventually level off and become more managable. Until then, the cell companies will remain well behind the capacity curve.

Part of this is ATT's fault for not developing their data network with the release of the original iPhone, until it became apparent they had a serious problem.

[Ace Purple]

The new iPhone 4 sounds great, but I'm happy with my Motorola Droid and its Verizon service. Besides it having poor 3G coverage in some parts of Kentucky (including my girlfriend's parents' place), I have been happy with both the Droid and the Verizon phone/3G service.

[cgarison]

The new iPhone 4 sounds great, but I'm happy with my Motorola Droid and its Verizon service. Besides it having poor 3G coverage in some parts of Kentucky (including my girlfriend's parents' place), I have been happy with both the Droid and the Verizon phone/3G service.

Same here for the Nexus One. I have no desire to move to the iPhone 4 with the stuff that I have seen so far on the phone, but I would like to have an iPod Touch or the iPad w/the front and rear cameras and the FaceTime application. That would be nice.