cgarison wrote:In overseas trading this morning, crude has dipped into the high $50s.
...and, if I caught this correctly, $50 December puts are being sold.
What that means is that people are buying an option now (a bet or an insurance policy, in a way) for the right to sell oil in December for $50....meaning that they are thinking there's a chance that oil could be heading for the 40s or lower in just a matter of weeks and that being able to sell for 50 would be a good and profitable thing.
Is this a lack of demand or is it a lack of money to trade it and speculate in the markets?
Both, it looks like. There's definitely demand destruction in most of the world, and, in China, growth in demand has fallen to 2%.
As far as money for trading and speculation goes, well, here's where we realize the heinousness of this particular political cycle.
You may recall the mention on
Squawk Box of the apparent quid pro quo when New York Democrat Charles Schumer slipped language into a bill that stopped NYMEX from moving to electronic trading, saving the jobs of the human traders, and the beginning of the speculation and irrational trading of oil. Now, a couple of weeks ago, I heard mention on the same program that the discovery had been made that the money for the bulk of the speculation had come from specific hedge funds and that the money the hedge funds supplied had been supplied to them by the managers of the union retirement funds, who pulled their money through the weeks of the Olympics. So, yeah, the speculation is over. Of course, speculation of the kind we saw is virtually impossible when demand is not pushed up against the edge of supply like it was.....